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teknolojiarsivi.com May 27, 2018


Yields for most maturities rise, track euro zone bonds

28 January 2018, 12:18 | Vickie Mathis

US 'weak dollar' remarks raise policy question, says ECB chief Mario Draghi

ECB Meeting: Coverage and Reactions of the Euro Exchange Rate Complex

US stocks were poised for a higher open on Thursday, buoyed by solid earnings reports and a decline in the dollar after comments from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.

The Eurozone countries enjoy the strongest economic growth in a decade. Mnuchin provided balance to his comments insisting that while a weaker dollar has its benefits for trade, a strong dollar has benefits in other areas and that the USA isn't focused on its levels.

"The risk to the policy outlook, however, is that weaker-than-expected inflation pushes back the end of the APP or increases the gap between the end of asset purchases and the first interest rate rise", added Lloyds Bank.

'We believe 2018 could again be a year in which Eurozone growth beats expectations, but still inflation is not picking up as wage growth remains weak.

The region's currencies have tracked the euro's surge to 3-year highs against the dollar this week.

EURUSD (1.2436): The EURUSD extended gains to post a fresh 4-year high as price action was seen clearly rising above the 1.2300 level of resistance.

Europe, similar to the United States, is looking for ways to get inflation back up to 2% to foster ongoing economic growth.

The dollar fell 0.52 percent against a basket of major currencies and held near three-year lows.


"The most interesting thing for this meeting will be exactly how they are going to try and clarify some of their comments that came out after the December minutes that were interpreted as hawkish", said Alessio de Longis, portfolio manager for OppenheimerFunds' global multi-asset group.

Even as the euro zone economy roars ahead, a strong euro threatens to dampen inflation and endanger the work done by years of unprecedented stimulus, probably forcing Draghi to pour cold water on rising expectations that the European Central Bank is speeding towards an interest rate hike.

"With momentum in aggregate demand, tightening labour markets, some evidence of a rebound in inflation, and resilient financial conditions, we expect three hikes in 2018 and one more in 2019", analysts at Nomura wrote to clients.

Such growth rates are fertile ground for tighter policy but a strong euro, up around 4 percent this year, is exacerbating a battle the European Central Bank is facing in trying to get inflation up anywhere near its 2 percent target ceiling as it makes imports so much cheaper.

Thursday's USA economic data was mixed, with US jobless claims rising less than expected to a seasonally-adjusted 233,000, for the week ended January 20.

He said several European Central Bank policymakers at a meeting on Thursday had questioned a change in USA policy.

Jane Foley of Rabobank mentioned that "Draghi failed to surprise the market", and "The economic data is too strong", Most analysts also pointed that despite what Draghi said, the market and the whole Eurozone can still expect a tighter monetary policy.



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